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What percentage of online poker players are winning/loosing players?Every poker player asked these questions at one time.

How much do they win/loose?

What is a relalistic win rate?

For the purposes of this article, we analyzed more than 9.6 million hands in total to give detailed answers to the questions above.

Lets start of by defining a losing/winning player as someone who is net down/up on recorded results. However, many of the players in our database hardly played any hands. Hence we reduce the entry requirement for our analysis to at least 1000 hands played. This limits our analysis to 12,670 players at NL50, 3,526 players at NL200, and 498 players at NL1000.

To be able to compare our results across the stakes we computed a players win rate in "Big Blinds per 100 hands" (BB/100).

One important factor to consider in our analysis is the rake that PokerStars takes from each hand as commission fee for operating the cardroom .

That's why we came up with two charts for each stake.

One based on the results of the play, and one adjusted by the average rake actually payed.

But before we take a look at the charts, let's compute the average rake for each stake.

Number of Player | Number of Hands | Total Rake |
---|---|---|

2 | 90,936 | $7,274.88 |

3 | 174,089 | $19,149.79 |

4 | 416,074 | $58,250.36 |

5 | 1,045,719 | $261,429.75 |

6 | 1,540,572 | $477,577.32 |

Total | 3,267,390 | $823,682.10 |

Dividing that by the total number of hands leads to:

Avg. Rake per hand: $0.252

Avg. number of Player in hand: 5.154

Number of Player | Number of Hands | Total Rake |
---|---|---|

2 | 109,709 | 31,815.61 |

3 | 188,284 | 62,133.72 |

4 | 381,805 | 145,085.90 |

5 | 1,021,817 | 684,617.39 |

6 | 1,730,234 | 1,366,884.36 |

Total | 3,431,849 | $2,290,537.48 |

Avg. Rake per hand: $0.6674

Avg. number of Player in hand: 5.1873

Avg. Rake per Player: $0.1287

Number of Player | Number of Hands | Total Rake |
---|---|---|

2 | 167,215 | 93,640.40 |

3 | 300,486 | 201,325.62 |

4 | 316,901 | 218,661.69 |

5 | 789,550 | 1,081,683.50 |

6 | 1,590,252 | 2,385,378.00 |

Total | 3,164,404 | $3,980,689.21 |

Avg. number of Player in hand: 5.054

Avg. Rake per Player: $0.249

Stake | Loser | Winner | #Player |
---|---|---|---|

NL50 | 74% | 26% | 12,670 |

NL50 Rake Adjusted | 90% | 10% | 12,670 |

NL200 | 69% | 31% | 3,526 |

NL200 Rake Adjusted | 85% | 15% | 3,526 |

NL1000 | 49% | 51% | 498 |

NL1000 Rake Adjusted | 56% | 44% | 498 |

Playing NL200 with a win rate of -15 BB/100? You are not alone. You share that win rate with 295 (8.39%) other regulars.

Looking at NL50, we can see a peak at 9.91% of the player having a win rate of "0" BB/100. They more or less play break even.

But things shift when you add rake.

Rake adjusted the distribution peaks at -10 BB/100 hands with about 8.32% of the players.

The same can be seen at NL200. The peak at break-even of 11.52% player shifts to a win rate of -5 BB/100 by 12.45% of player.

Based on these numbers about 74% of the player at NL50 are loosing player, hence 26% of them are winning player. It gets worse once whe consider the rake and adjust accordingly. Suddenly 90% of the players become loosing player and only 10% of them can beat the other players and the rake.

It's similar at NL200, but the impact of rake is smaller and there are more winning player to start with.

In general one can say, the higher the stake, the less loosing player you can find.

Which makes sense. The higher the stakes, the better the player, since the majority of loosing player gets destroyed on the lower stakes and never reaches the higher stakes.

Of course, our analysis did not take things like rake back / loyalty points into account.

This is something we might take a look at in another article.

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